12/01/2025 - Ideas For The Upcoming Week
Hey all,
Last week the SPY extended it’s jump of the 100 daily SMA. We also closed above the weekly 8 SMA and the 8 remains nicely above the 21. Technically it looks all ok until you look at the monthly candle close which was the first red monthly candle in 6 months.
This red candle close has to lead to some slight hesitation in my opinion. On the one hand we have December being historically one of the strongest months in the calendar. We also have some strong recent earnings as further proof that AI momentum is nowhere near to ending.
On the other hand we have defensive healthcare plays catching bids, 6 consecutive months of green candles, and no earnings to further prop us up (aside from PATH on Wednesday which I’ll be watching). I can make the argument both ways and I think that’s healthy. Many come on here as macro experts but the truth is nobody out there knows exactly what is going to happen on a macro basis.
As Peter Lynch said:
“If you spend 13 minutes a year on macroeconomics, you’ve wasted 10 minutes.”
If you look at big tech, we have META well below the 200 day. We have NVDA below the 100 day. And we have PLTR below the 100 day.
So what’s the play here given this environment? I’ll break it down into defensive, neutral, and aggressive to cater to different risk appetites out there.
Defensive
I think the safest plays out there are naturally in the mega caps and the healthcare plays which continue to look strong.
AMZN
AMZN is probably my favorite mega cap to own right now. They failed to catch a bid in 2025 and have so far been lagging the market YTD which is crazy for a business as diversified as AMZN.
A sum of the parts valuation I did gives:
Digital ads: $1T valuation
E-commerce: $2.4T
AWS: $2T
The current AMZN market cap is $2.5T and I haven’t even discussed Zoox, Project Kuiper, Twitch, physical stores, subscriptions etc.
The other key thing to understand is (and this can be said for a few businesses out there such as GOOGL and NVDA and META) they have the opportunity whenever to:
Increase margins
Offer dividends
Increase buybacks
Yet they operate as one of the worlds largest, most innovative startups with an almost infinite bank balance. They’re investing in all of the highest growth themes out there (robotics, AI infrastructure, digital ads, e-commerce, satellites, logistics etc) and they will continue to do so. This is why AMZN is a big position for me and one I will potentially lean into more if the market turns bearish.
Healthcare
The other sector catching an obvious bid right now is healthcare. We’ve seen LLY jump 30% this month, MDT jump 15% this month, and TMDX jump 17% in the last week.
I own TMDX because I think the product is incredible, and because the founder has some nice skin in the game. It’s also a beautiful bit of diversification into the healthcare sector whilst still having some huge growth potential.
Neutral Risk
PATH
PATH report earnings on Wednesday. I was going to have a deep dive out before they report but I’m going to hold off till after just so I have a more complete, and hopefully fact based article with more data on Maestro.
I think we see revenue still fairly flat. Deployment takes months so seeing PATH’s agentic AI future through Maestro in Q3 is very unlikely, but if we start to see some more promising commentary by management then I think we start to front run revenue a bit.
I see downside being structurally quite capped with a 18x FCF multiple and 3x sales. If the market re-rates this to a growth software company (which they should be soon), we should see a +50% move alone just on multiple expansion. When you combine this with revenue growth rate increases and the huge TAM they potentially can win, I think PATH’s risk to reward here is very good.
PATH is currently a top 8 position for me that I will likely continue to make larger.
UPST
Paid subs will know UPST has been the worst performer in my entire portfolio, but I also haven’t trimmed at all. I held off adding until we saw some rejection at the support zone (white line) and since then I’ve made some nice adds. Over the last week or so UPST has been one of the few stocks that has held up nicely on market wide red days, and also outperformed nicely on market wide green days.
That’s something to note.
ZETA
Management updated their FY25 guidance last week which I assumed would lead to a bit of a bid. But aside from the +6% move AH, we haven’t seen much else which is strange. I think if the macro was less on the edge, ZETA could have quite easily popped 10-15%. The other argument is that this Marigold acquisition was already priced in but I’d be shocked if that was the case given the numbers.
There’s truly not many stocks out there set to grow +35% for less than 3x sales. From an EBITDA angle, I suspect we hit $395M in EBITDA in FY26 (just above management guidance) which would get us to a 48% increase in EBITDA, yet it’s trading at 12x NTM EBITDA. Far too cheap.
Happy for this to keep consolidating here or even drop 10-20%. I’ll remain a buyer.
Higher Risk
The higher risk plays are likely these pre-revenue companies that caught a huge bid during the summer, but have massively pulled back over the last month. Here’s 2 that I think have a bright future 👇
SMR
I think it’s quite clear energy is a perfect long term play on AI. We’ve seen it play out once, and we’ve seen some nice pullbacks. We’ll see that same cycle again.
SMR has $575M in government backing. If they finalize TVA I think SMR returns to ATH’s fairly quickly. That alone is a +120% move.
JOBY
JOBY is the smallest position in my portfolio by far. The position size is completely immaterial but I wanted to initiate a position and try to DCA down. The next time we hit this $12.90 range I’ll likely add to JOBY a lot more.
I personally prefer JOBY over ACHR based on the safety of certifications, but between them I think we ultimately have a huge TAM that will be dominated by both.
I hope you enjoyed this article. If there’s any feedback or additional information that you think would be necessary, please do reach out to me and let me know or leave a comment below.