Tariffs? These 5 Stocks Won't Care
4 out of 5 are portfolio stocks
Hi all 👋
I’ve got a big article coming out early next week titled “Q2 Playbook”.
It’ll be solely for my paid subs as it looks specifically at my portfolio and what I’ll be changing/adding/trimming over the next few months upon recent tariff news. You can subscribe for the price of 2-3 coffees per month so please do consider if you can spare it.
This next period of stock market weakness is when it’s most important to invest in your research and knowledge. If you invest accordingly today, you’ll thank yourself tenfold in the next 3-5 years.
This article is going to touch on 5 stocks that I think will be mostly tariff proof.
No comments on the tariffs from me today. What I will say is that I’ll be quite surprised if by Wednesday we don’t see some comments from the White House, or delays/changes to the tariffs.
Also, futures open in an hour. Don’t be surprised if we see a lot more red…
1. Lemonade | LMND 0.00%↑
The vast majority of LMND’s revenue currently comes from pet and renters insurance which shouldn’t be impacted too much by the tariffs compared to the auto insurance business which will see much higher pay outs.
The slight worry I have is that some success in the auto segment has been priced in to LMND and this will come slightly more into doubt, though it shouldn’t effect them anywhere near as much as other industries. Most of the auto insurance costs come from bodily injury and Compared to competitors like ROOT for example, I think LMND will serve much better because they have the diversity in their business to lean into. LMDN over the last 5 days dropped 11% whilst ROOT dropped 18% so the market currently agrees with this.
So far we have seen some selling of with LMND but most of this was very low volume in line with a macro pullback as opposed to aggressive shorting.
2. Transmedics | TMDX 0.00%↑
Aside from being a small cap company that will likely trade in line with the market at the beginning, TMDX is one of the most recession proof and tariff proof companies in the market. The majority of the TMDX kit is built in the US and therefore not reliant on imported goods to the US.
The area I really like is that TMDX are becoming more and more in control of their entire supply chain meaning flight costs won’t necessarily increase too much like other companies will have to face. The more dominant supply chain, the more difficult it is to disrupt.
In fact, down the road when rates begin to fall we could see a general risk on market for small cap medtechs like TMDX. FWIW, if you look at TMDX’s stock movements over the last week relative to other medtech peers you’ve got:
TMDX -0.4%
ISRG -9.1%
PRCT -8.8%
LMAT -6.1%
If this doesn’t signal TMDX is incredibly recession proof, I’m not sure what does.
On top of this, TMDX is growing at 50% for just 4.6x Fwd Sales.
ISRG has 25% revenue growth for 16.5x sales
PRCT has 57% growth for 7.9x sales and very negative margins.
LMAT has 14% growth for 7.0x sales.
TMDX is one of the most recession proof, tariff proof, high growth small caps in the entire market.
The other great part about TMDX is we can easily track flight numbers. Flights were up 20% from Q4 to Q1 which unless something has gone very wrong or revenue per flight has decreased considerably, we should get a very strong Q1 earnings report on April 29th. If we combine a massive beat with a revenue guidance raise of 10-20% plus then TMDX at $67 is an incredible deal.
3. Hims & Hers | HIMS 0.00%↑
Firstly, pharmaceutical are currently exempt from tariffs. Secondly, the vast majority of HIMS products are manufactured in the US. Thirdly, HIMS are actively transitioning predominantly to US based production with with the acquisition in February 2025 of a California peptide facility in Menlo Park. This will further verticalize HIMS ability to deliver the best personalized care to customers.
I won’t dive into the valuation today but I will with you soon. What I am going to do is just quickly share this with you:
PLTR Rule of 40: 81%
HIMS Rule of 40: 107%
PLTR EV/Sales: 44.7x
HIMS EV/Sales: 2.4x
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4. Nu Holdings | NU 0.00%↑
NU’s entire ecosystem is built for the LatAm markets rooted in local demand and local logistics with next to no US trade. The LatAm markets are trading very attractively, and I still believe NU is one of the best stocks to own in this region despite the short term volatility that we will no doubt see.
I wrote my NU deep dives recently. You can see them here:
5. First Solar | FSLR 0.00%↑
I’ve spoke about FSLR a few times recently. They’re the one company in this list that has actually traded somewhat positively to the tariff news.
As I’ve mentioned before, FSLR dominates the CdTe solar panel market but the vast majority (95%) of deals are won by competitors in the crystalline silicon market. The disadvantage of the crystalline silicon market is that ~80% of the supply chain is controlled by China and Southeast Asia which now have tariffs at 39%.
This will give a big advantage to US based players like FSLR, though there’s obviously risks still present since they import some modules from India and Malaysia meaning margins could be hurt. However, the advantage is no doubt in their hands much more than it was 12 months ago.
Here’s what I wrote on February 11th 👇
That’s all for today
I do hope you enjoyed this article. If there’s any feedback or additional information that you think would be necessary, please do reach out to me and let me know or leave a comment below.