02.17.2026: Ideas For The Upcoming Week
The SPY is still holding on as I write this, but the QQQ still looks pretty weak below the 100, 21, and 8 MA’s. There’s every chance we push up further this week, but with how the last 3 weeks have been, the jobs data, and NVDA still not reporting for another 8 days, I’m not feeling overly confident we do that.
Still, that is emotion talking and I don’t invest based on feelings and emotion. I invest based on rules and strategy as that is how you outperform in the long run. The big news last week was the megacap stocks getting sold off more than I’ve seen in a long time…especially relative to the rest of the market. AMZN dropped below $200, MSFT extended its gains down, and GOOGL is sitting just above $300.
On the other side of the market, materials have done quite well recently as has oil. That in itself never feels you with confidence that tech is about to start another leg up but let’s see. My rules rely on the SPY breaking the 100 daily and that hasn’t happened just yet. Until then I remain with a bullish bias.
With that being said, I have cut some losses and taken some cash off the table over the last 2 weeks to secure some big gains. For example, I sold out of ONDS at 173%, ALB at 119%, SVM at 238%, and SES at 41%. I also took trims on OSCR (-18%), CRDO (-24%), UPST pre-earnings (-33%) and fully sold out of HIMS (-46%).
Access to my portfolio (with real monetary amounts)
Access to my spreadsheet and theme tracker. Currently there’s about 250 stocks on there but I’m adding new ones every week as I work my way through the themes I’m most bullish on.
Access to my paid chat where I send 5-20 messages per day.
Real time buy, add, trim, and sell alerts.
Give it a go. I suspect you’ll find it far more valuable than $24 a month.
Defensive
Last week I spoke about AMZN as my defensive play, and this week I’m sticking by that. There’s absolutely no change to my thesis and if the SPY breaks the 100 daily I’ll lean more into this position than I already am, especially so if we drop to this $187 level which is a key weekly level.
As a reminder, the main reason AMZN sold off so sharply was because of the surprise to the CapEx budget which came in $55M above estimates. This posed the question on how certain returns are and how much FCF is to be affected in the future.
My take is this:
AMZN operates like a small cap with an infinite amount of capital to invest. In the near term, that’s offering them a potential future goldmine. FCF is/will be affected but the arguments I am seeing online suggest AMZN’s CapEx in FY26 of $200B cannot support 24% AWS growth vs peers like MSFT who have $120B in CapEx for 39% growth.
When have we ever compared current year CapEx to current revenue growth rates?
Revenue growth as a result of this $200B in CapEx is 2-4 years away. It’s a 2-4 year buildout. If AMZN is spending $200B in CapEx in FY26, it’s because they see a tidal wave of demand coming.
Neutral Risk
I touched on SOFI last week as a neutral risk play…and I think that still provides an incredible opportunity at $19.60.
For today, I want to focus on NBIS who reported some of their strongest ever earnings on Feb 12th.
“Everything we build, we sell. We are in the very early days of one of the biggest industrial and technological revolutions in history. And Nebius is quickly becoming the AI cloud provider of choice.”
On the $7B-$9B ARR Target:
“Our 2026 ARR target is not dependent on any new mega-deals. As we bring on our planned additional capacity…we are very confident in our ability to deliver.”
Let me remind you that Q4 ended with ARR at $1.25B so FY26 ARR of midpoint $8B means we’re set to see 540% growth in ARR for 3.1x FY26 ARR. I think it’s simple to say that as long the wider tech market holds up, NBIS is going to be a clear outperformer for the next year.
Higher Risk
