03.23.2026: Ideas For The Upcoming Week
I deliberately delayed this one until Monday after close again to try gauge where the market is heading as the war continues.
I’m not sure how useful that has been as ultimately the narrative is changing hourly, and today has been no different. Futures opened very red, only for the market to open up green. At one point today the SPY was up +2% and then we closed +1%. Another green day amongst what is likely continued red days.
As much as today has seen some more positive narrative, I still am playing a very rules-based approach. We’re still below the 200 daily. We’re still below the 663 level. We’re still sitting on the sidelines as this chop continues.
It seems boring to do, but most people either:
Get bored and overtrade in an environment where they have no edge.
Get scared of a choppy market and chase defensive plays like oil which have already moved huge amounts.
Your best bet now is sitting on your hands until we have more clarity.
Personally, I feel good. I have a nice cash pile and I have nice long exposure. There’s absolutely no need for me to rush into any trade right now.
Here’s what I wrote last week. I spoke about ITRI, LEU, and MELI.
Before we get into my 3 ideas for the week, take a look at my March database and portfolio. You get:
Portfolio (real monetary amounts with 100% transparency)
Watchlist
Theme tracker
Valuation models
10+ themes with stocks per theme measured by valuation
Daily notes in the paid chat
1 video chart review per week
I also want to give an example of one of the many tabs within my portfolio. Here’s the optics tab:
I created this back in December 2025 before LITE and AAOI had their massive runs. It gives you a list of all the stocks within the theme measured by revenue and growth rates relative to multiples and also combines that with where the stock is trading technically vs key MA’s.
As you can see, LITE, VIAV, CIEN, and MRVL are still currently showing as very bullish. Outside of CRDO which I currently own, I think MRVL is my next favorite.
Lower Risk
As paid subs know, I own two copper plays that I have been DCA’ing into for ~2 months now. COPX is one of them and TMQ is the other. TMQ is a far higher risk play, but COPX is a general play on the copper market.
COPX is now down ~23% from highs on January 30th 2026 because of a potential higher inflation number combined with weaker output and a stickier central bank policy. All of this is ultimately bad news for metals like copper which is considered less of a safe haven metal.
Zooming out, this move is purely macro driven. The supply-demand gap is still real and I will continue to DCA into copper plays.
Here’s a reminder of the structural copper bull case:
We still have what appears to be a huge demand running against a very real supply constraint. There are very few mines coming online and major copper discoveries have been pretty limited for a few years now. When you add on the fact that several large mines are fighting weaker quality and more complex operational challenges…the simple case is that the world is not prepared at all for the huge step up in demand that is coming.
“Copper is a pretty simple story…it takes about 12 years, greenfield, to produce copper, and you got EVs, the grid, data centers, and believe it or not munitions…we just think the supply-demand situation is incredible for the next five or six years.” - Stanley Druckenmiller
"Copper is the new oil…there’s no decarbonization without copper. There is a long term supply gap of 8.2 million tonnes by 2030, twice the size of the gap that triggered the bull market in copper in early 2000s.” - Goldman Sachs
Here’s comes a slightly more interesting angle to invest in the theme though, and one that I wouldn’t include in the “Lower Risk” sector but one that slides in perfectly below that copper piece.
Look how similar this chart looks to COPX.
This is MSCI Chile Index which moves quite in line with copper though has historically slightly lagged which could potentially lead to a play on copper and a nice catch up play as well. ECH has moved 28% in the last year whilst COPX has moved 76%.
Medium Risk
Last week I spoke about LEU for my neutral risk play. That one remains very high on my list to consider but I’m going to introduce a new name today… SANM.
SANM isn’t a very well-known stock, but the numbers and bottleneck they solve seem too good to ignore for me as EBITDA ramps up in FY26 post ZT Systems acquisition which should double SANM revenue in the next 2 years to reach ~$16B in FY27. That ultimately means SANM is trading at ~0.46x FY27 revenue whilst set to (inorganically) grow revenues by over 100% in 2 years.
That’s why the numbers make sense. Now let me explain the business.
SANM is a highly complex electronic manufacturing services (EMS) company that solves a lot of bottlenecks in today’s compute and power stack. The main bottleneck they solve is PCB boards. These are essentially the backbone of any electrical system.
It’s a flat insulating board (fiberglass + copper) that is where the chips, connectors, and all other components sit. As electronic systems have got more and more complex, there’s been fewer and fewer companies that are able to serve this bottleneck. SANM designed PCB boards with 60-80+ layers with high aspect ratios and they do so reliably at scale… and yet they trade at less than 0.5x NTM sales and less than 7.5x NTM EBITDA.
Here at $131 the technicals also look really nice right at the 200 daily and I think we see a move back up to ~$160 as long as the wider market holds up which isn’t clear right now.
Higher Risk
OUST is my higher risk play right now. Fundamentally, I think OUST is one of the better plays on the next 5-10 years of the physical AI megatheme.
Technically, we’re still sitting below the 200 daily, the 100 daily, and below the key $21.50 level so until we break those levels I think the risk is slightly higher.
You can see my OUST deep dive here:
Excellently written, great read 👏👏👏