30.03.2026: Ideas For The Upcoming Week
A geopolitical driven pullback exactly 12 months on from March 2025. Sound familiar?
The SPY had its worst week since the start of the Iran war down 2.2% over the last week making this its 5th straight weekly close and now ~8.7% above from highs. More importantly, the SPY reaffirmed its position under the 200 daily this week and looks to be now heading towards the next key level which is the 100 weekly at 608 (another 4.1% decline from here).
I’ve said it over and over again…people have been calling “buy the dip” for the last few weeks but completely ignoring the SPY structure. When the SPY isn’t holding any form of bullish structure, you have to be a bit more cautious. It’s why I’ve held off buying individual names (aside from my regular DCAs) for ~7 weeks now despite some of those individual names I’m interested in being at levels I thought were cheap. They’re all now much lower. That’s why taking into account the index structure is very important…and it’s what I’ve been telling subscribers on a daily basis for the last few weeks.
On the contrary, I do feel as though we are now much close to deploying cash than many perhaps fear. We’re now at what feels like peak uncertainty and peak fear and whether the war continues or not for 1 weeks, 1 month, or 6 months, I think the market is getting close to pricing in that peak fear.
I’m sitting on ~17% cash now and have been for quite a while. That’s a healthy cash position with continued healthy long exposure. I’m ready to deploy that cash into a handful of names whenever necessary and I suspect that time will come fairly soon.
Before we get into my 3 ideas for the week, take a look at my March database and portfolio. You get:
Portfolio (real monetary amounts with 100% transparency)
Watchlist
Theme tracker
Valuation models
10+ themes with stocks per theme measured by valuation
Daily notes in the paid chat
1 video chart review per week
I also want to give an example of one of the many tabs within my portfolio. Here’s the optics tab:
I created this back in December 2025 before LITE and AAOI had their massive runs. It gives you a list of all the stocks within the theme measured by revenue and growth rates relative to multiples and also combines that with where the stock is trading technically vs key MA’s.
As you can see, LITE, VIAV, CIEN, and MRVL are still currently showing as very bullish. Outside of CRDO which I currently own, I think MRVL is my next favorite.
Here’s what I wrote last week about COPX, TMQ, LEU, SANM, and OUST. All held up very nicely over the week (aside from OUST).
I still believe these are all at nice levels today.
Let’s get into my ideas for this week👇
Lower Risk
There’s one theme very few are talking about, but it’s one I have mentioned quite consistently in my paid chat for the last two months….chemicals.
Chemicals sit at the intersection of the defensive macro and the offensive AI.
On the “safer” side, a lot of chemical demand is anchored to must-have end markets like autos, energy, defense, and infrastructure. That means volumes are tied to government spending, reshoring, and basic economic activity rather than just hype cycles. And then when you layer in the fact that many chemical prices are fairly well tied to oil and gas prices you have a theme that is quite nicely a more defensive play on the Middle East tensions.
At the same time, chemicals are a huge beneficiary of the AI buildout. Here’s a post I put out on X on March 2nd 2026 for example.
Every AI data center, and every chip fab is essentially a huge chemical consumer. They need specialty gases, advanced polymers, high purity solvents, coolants etc. So the big thematic is that as AI infrastructure scales, there’s a clear secular demand for chemistries that enable more servers, more chips, and more thermal management.
In other words, the chemicals industry is no longer just an “old economy” trade.
My favorite plays here are:
Celanese | CE: CE uses thermally conductive plastics (called CoolPoly) to replace metal as a coolant. It’s mainly used in data centers, 5G equipment, LED lighting, and high speed connectors where high power density and tighter packaging is needed. CE trade at 9x FCF for ~10% CAGR in FCF for the next 3 years.
Entegris | ENTG: ENTG sells the ultra-pure chemistries and materials that lets fabs run at scale. It’s the cleanest play on every incremental wafer and layer of complexity driving more contamination control, and more content per too. ENTG is far pricier than CE at 39x FCF but if there’s a continued chemicals bull market I see upside here as well.
Medium Risk
The Iran war has so far wiped out ~30% off the global mining industry’s value. I was an owner of Silvercorp Metals (SVM) which I full sold out off (see screenshot) a month ago for ~210% gain today.
Since then, we’ve seen even the big players like Rio Tinto (RIO) drop 12% over the month and Newmont (NEM) down 17% over the last month. SVM is down 18% as well.
Despite this selloff, critical minerals remain vital for defense and we’re seeing an ongoing supply deficit for many of these critical materials. Paid subs will know that I just opened up a position in a sub $1B scandium play just last week. I view scandium as potentially having the next copper like move.
From a broader thematic angle, if you’re bullish on the following themes:
Power grid upgrade
Robotics
Defense
AI infrastructure buildout
Electrification
Then you have to be bullish on the mining industries which sits at the core of all of these themes. We have surging demand in pretty much all critical metals (some more than others) and quite a clear supply deficit. There’s no need to overcomplicate the result of this over a 5-10 year period.
Here’s the critical metals I am following most closely so far. I’m not going to give specific mining stocks in this free release as I’ll leave that for paid subs, but this list is a good start for you if you don’t want to become a paid sub:
Copper
Scandium
Rhenium
Hafnium
Lithium
Gallium
Higher Risk
