Midweek Recap - 02.04.2026

Feb 04, 2026

∙ Paid

Today has been one of the most brutal days in the market that I’ve experienced. The SPY still is holding on above the 100 daily (below that I’ll start biasing my portfolio a little more bearish) but the QQQ broke below the 100 daily for the first time since May 2025. I’m seeing people on X call bottoms all over the place, but very few realize that despite the pain of the last few days, we’re still only a couple percentage points away from SPY highs.

This ultimately isn’t the time to start calling bottoms. It’s not the time to remain attached to your stocks. It’s the time to read what the charts are telling you and accept whichever way they’re telling you to be biased.

I deliberately held this update till after GOOGL earnings. GOOGL initially reacted -2.4% to a good print, but now we’re up ~2% AH at the time of writing this. If GOOGL reported anything negative, then I think the 100 day break could have come very soon, but these strong earnings still show us the AI trade is still in full flow and hopefully this props the market up a bit higher.

We’ve seen a huge unwind over the last few days. AMD down on a strong quarter, LMND erasing all gains over the last 3 weeks, CRDO back in the double digits for the first time since July, and energy plays like SEI getting wrecked.

Short term, although it doesn’t feel it, my bias remains bullish. I don’t love the QQQ 100 daily break at all, but until the SPY breaks the 100 daily I’m not doing too much and am set to hold through earnings for the time being.

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