As I’ve been saying in every weekly issue, the doomsday focus on the yield story is not the full picture.
Yields remain high yes, but the underlying economy remains strong too…and we remain in the middle of the greatest technological revolution we’ve ever been through.
Now is the the time to be aware of the macro situation, but remain with a bullish bias.
That’s exactly what I’ve done as I’ve continued to hold and add to the highest conviction names.
Those who have been focused on yields and focused on a hawkish Fed have been distracted away from the fact that:
Hedge funds have been buying US tech equities at the fastest rate since mid-2025.
Intel (INTC) CEO has said memory prices have risen 5x with a warning shortage will worsen in 2027.
AI token usage is increasing at a rate of 31% month-over-month.
Nebius (NBIS) has raised on-demand GPU prices ~20%
GPU depreciation has been evidenced to be nowhere near what bears initially forecasted.
Today remains the time to be cautiously bullish.
Macro Update
It looks like QQQ and SMH are breaking out to multi-weekly highs. As I said last week, “there is no clear trend at the moment and until then it’s important to have a bullish bias, but be very picky with what you’re buying and when you’re buying it.” Today, it looks like QQQ and SMH are forming a new trend higher.
Institutional investors have now been net buyers of US tech for three straight weeks. The buying has been across hardware and software which is improving sentiment after a difficult period from July.
Crypto markets remain the best trade over the last two months…timed extremely well with our COIN buying.
Yields remain elevated which is why caution and position sizing is still very important…but it’s been promising to see markets hold and push higher even despite yields so far. It’s a sign that yields aren’t the overpowering narrative for the markets yet.
Commodities
Copper: The market is full of inflection points right now and copper is one of them if you look at this chart below created by Bernstein and FT.
Copper importantly remains a growth play, but it also remains a growth play even if the Fed hikes or not. Governments and hyperscalers continue to invest heavily (trillions in projected CapEx) into grid infrastructure and defence and there are no signs of this slowing down.
Copper now sits ~3% away from highs and as Stanley Druckenmiller says on copper:
“It’s the tightest position I have ever studied.”
Silver: Silver remains in its consolidation phase after its historic run in August 2025. As long as we hold above the $48 level I see no reason to be bearish silver as it acts a nice macro hedge, and an extremely underrated growth play for the AI infrastructure buildout just like copper.
I currently hold SLV, HL, and CTGO.
Scandium: I’m currently up 41% on my SREMF position that is 3.3% of my portfolio.
SREMF (Sunrise Energy Metals) is a pure play on scandium which is one of the most underrated metals in the world. Here’s why demand to supply is set to hit ~3:1 and why I remain happy holding SREMF:
It makes up a key component in Bloom Energy’s solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs).
Aluminium-scandium alloys create the most lightweight, but strong metals in the world.
It’s a key metal in 5G/6G technologies.
Crypto
Bitcoin and Ethereum have performed incredibly well of late, both breaking out of downtrends and jumping above May highs.
Whether or not the reason for the last 2 years was retail sentiment driven or capital flowing from a hyped retail market to ETF, institutions, and alike…I’m not sure.
But to me it seems like crypto, and crypto related equities are moving more in line with the long term agent thesis now that I’ve outlined many times. Moves aren’t as hyped and so far it seems like more of a sustainable trend.
It finally seems like AI and the agentic wave is catching up to the reason crypto was invested in the first place.
For me, the risk of being on the bearish side of this trade as agentic count grows at 30% CAGR per month is not worth it with the upside potential.
Micro Update
South Korea’s chip exports hit a record high in September mainly led by SK Hynix (SKHY) and Samsung.
Total exports rose 14.9% in September (nearly 2x August’s growth rate). There are still no signs to me of any fading momentum.
The release of Astra is just more reassurance of the bull case.
Rivals either have to close the gap to Astra or fall behind. That leads to more investment, better products, a larger market, and more discovery and knowledge. Token prices will eventually fall but the volume of usage will outweigh that so aggregate demand continues to grow.
TSMC’s (TSM) chip production is set to fall short of demand in 2027.
JP Morgan has estimated that NVDA’s Vera Rubin will take up ~60% of TSMC’s output in 2027 (vs 15% in H1 2026). Supply is only getting tigher.
Morgan Stanley has modelled that Bloom Energy (BE) will be ~20% of the entire fix for America’s data center power shortage.
Nebius (NBIS) raised on-demand pricing for 4-year old H100s.
The revenue impact isn’t that significant but the signal is very bullish. Older GPUs are holding value longer than expected and pricing is keeping up with that fact.
Coreweave (CRWV) even announced on their earnings call that they signed an A100 (a 2020 GPU) contract extending through to 2029.
Big news for the week that needs discussing individually:
The CLARITY Act failed to pass last week (September 15th) which caused an initial sell off in crypto assets and crypto related equities like COIN, HOOD, and SECZ.
However, regulators have moved quickly and we’ve seen since:
September 17th: SEC approved limited on-chain trading of tokenized stocks under a temporary exemption.
September 17th: CFTC allowing developers to build passive derivatives software without registering as brokers.
September 18th: CFTC filed new rulemaking for crypto transactions and markets.
Hence why Bitcoin is now up 17.5% in the last month despite a failed Clarity Act.
I’ll have more news in my “What’s Mispriced” section below regarding Coinbase (COIN) but this price action is further evidence that we’re now at an inflection point in the financial system.
Agent count is multiplying. Risk assets have been performing poorly aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum…this matters and it’s very important to understand why.
What’s Mispriced?
This is a section looking at the potential opportunities I’m seeing at the moment. I’ll split them by how I see the risk profile (high risk → low risk).
I’ll tend to aim for at least 3+ opportunities in every article I publish here…but that depends on what the market is offering.
You’ll also likely see overlap week to week. I am not a trader that changes his mind every few hours, days, or even weeks. If I see an opportunity, that opportunity sometimes stays around for weeks.
Coinbase | COIN (Low Risk)
Paid subscribers will know that I’ve been buying COIN aggressively lately. It’s now a +5% position that I’m up only 10% on but happy with an average cost here.
Technically, anything under this $212 level for me is a nice play to buy COIN if you have long term conviction in the play. A break above $212 will be some nice assurance that we’re heading higher over time.
I have my deep dive and valuation coming out on COIN on Wednesday afternoon. Make sure you’re subscribed for it:
