An eventful weekend in the AI space.
For those that haven’t seen the past few days OpenAI and Anthropic are aiming towards having 3rd party evaluators (from unknown organizations) to slow down the “Pace the Frontier” as Dario explained.
There’s countless takes I can make on this and countless takes I’ve read on X over the weekend.
But my aim here is to strip this all back and evaluate the investment implications with you as well as do our weekly macro and micro check in with my look at what’s mispriced.
TL:DR Macro Summary:
Bonds and oil markets remain the central to almost all media outlets narratives. In my opinion, bonds and oil aren’t anywhere near as important as what is actually happening with AI CapEx over the long run.
Comments from Dario and Sam Altman over the weekend will add another layer of distraction to what is actually happening. I think the next few days/weeks will see continued chop and likely more dips as enthusiasm around the AI trade amongst many will soften.
Being in a cash position above 10% and ideally higher I think is sensible right now. Thematically, there is no clear trend at the moment and until there is I think it’s important to have a bullish bias, but be very picky with what you’re buying and when you’re buying it.
With a long term mindset, the GDP forecasts, the compute we still need ahead, my bias remains firmly on the bullish side.
Before I do this let’s check in on the markets:
An update on my Web-App
Before we move on…just a quick note on my web-app which is ~3-4 weeks away from full deployment.
Some incredible features all paid subs will have access to:
Full investing universe broken down by theme
How I’d structure a concentrated ETF by theme
A guided valuation workflow (or a view of all my personal models)
My portfolio and watchlist and the ability to create your own portfolio and watchlist on the app
All my daily notes
And much more
Commodities
The below is a chart of SPY vs.. GLD, SLV, and COPX.
There’s not much to add here on top of what I said two weeks ago:
Silver (and gold…but mainly silver) is one of the safest ways to play the AI CapEx boom.
Investors are underestimating the demand behind silver as we head into the inference stage of the AI trade. If you’re bullish electricity, grid capacity, switchgear, turbines, solar, etc… then you need to be bullish on silver.
Silver is the backbone material running through all of this infrastructure buildout and the supply demand imbalance in my opinion will at some point give us another copper like move.
The safer way to play this move is through SLV. The higher risk way to play this move is by owning the miners. I personally own Hecla Mining (HL) and Contango Silver & Gold (CTGO).
On the other hand, silver and gold also acts like a hedge against US treasuries at current yields. History has told us high yields and sticky inflation is bullish hard assets (gold and silver).
Crypto
This chart below is important in backing up my thesis on Ethereum and it’s role in stabelcoins, tokenization, and everything agentic AI.
Over the last month alone, ETH (relative to market cap) absorbed 2.4x the inflows of BTC.
Advisors and institutions are positioning in ETH for the tokenization and stablecoin era that we are on the verge of.
A throwback to Brian Armstrong’s X post from March 9th 2026:
Other Key Macro
With 10Y and 30Y yields still high, the AI doomsday narrative continues to be focused on these levels relative to 2008.
As I’ve said countless times…this is all a distraction to what is actually happening.
Look at the rest of the market.
HYG (High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) is holding up fine. For those that don’t know what this is it’s the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF which tracks the US high yield (“junk”) corporate bonds.
It’s essentially a credit-market gauge and this chart says that risk appetite in credit is still there. Investors still believe that most issuers can keep paying.
Or more simply…”The market is still comfortable for now.”
Stop focusing on the yield narrative that you see everywhere and start focusing on what the underlying market is actually saying. For the most part, it’s saying the economy isn’t in as bad of a position as most of the narrative is suggesting.
From a more technical standpoint, the SPY is still holding above the 50D MA. I’m not convinced, given market spooks around the pace of the frontier that we will hold this but let’s see.
This is the unknown that I think is very key to track at the moment. My bias most definitely remains to the upside. I will not be selling much or trimming much (unless I feel I need to raise more capital which depends how much we do fall from here).
But I definitely remain on the side of the fence that is bullish micro will overpower a mixed/bearish macro.
Pacing the Frontier
I’m going to write this section as concisely as possible. I could write for ages on the different perspectives, and the different viewpoints in my head and those I’ve read but you can just go to X for that (for both my opinion and everyone else’s).
Here’s the investment implications from slowing down the pace of the frontier… assuming this actually happens (that’s a whole different debate).
Near Term: Near term I see narrative driven bearish sentiment. Enthusiasm around the AI trade will wrongly soften. Retail will likely panic and misunderstand that pacing the frontier (again IF it happens) means lower CapEx forecasts which is not the case.
That alone I think will cause a near term sell off which I will be sitting patiently on ready to buy dips as and when I deem necessary.
Mid-Long Term: Putting third party evaluators on models to slow down releases will not change demand, CapEx, or any cycles. In my opinion, this is purely a way to gain a regulatory moat, and a way to manage legal risk.
It’s strategic moves by Anthropic and OpenAI and not bearish at all for the overall future demand of AI.
In fact, this should create a smoother for longer AI cycle (as Gavin Baker correctly described it) which will decrease the risk of an intense boom-bust cycle.
Micro Update
H100 prices are at the same level as they were three years ago.
This is more signs of the insatiable demand of AI. Compute is still so scarce that even NVDA Hoppers are not scrap because inference and agents can keep the old clusters busy..
CrowdStrike (CRWD) CEO came out with a response that pacing the frontier does not secure production. The problem just moves from human speed security to machine speed security. I will have an article out mid-late this week on the cybersecurity industry but my main opinion is…demand for cyber is very high but be aware of the the very high multiples attached to this demand.
Jensen Huang (NVDA) has said that AGI has arrived.
Robinhood (HOOD) took a minority stake in Crypto.com.
HOOD also released that it generated $4M in Chain revenue on September 2nd which topped SOL, ETH, and TRON.
Iren (IREN) CEO commented on the “Pace the Frontier” news with the following:
“Even if models never improved from here (which they will), just rolling out what they can already do would take more compute than the world can build for years.”
This isn’t an exhaustive list this week. But the very important thing to understand is that I do not think you should fade what is clearly happening.
Agent count is increasing parabolically. Research agents are now generating 3.1 work days for every 1 human work day. Thousands of agents can solve thousands of tasks, particularly tasks that have not originally been solved. Think:
Drug discovery
Materials discovery
Mathematics and algorithms
Etc
Every discovery opens up the world to a whole new TAM.
Granted the other side of the equation is terminal values of some companies will shorten which will compress multiples… but long term my opinion is that the world’s GDP is heading one way and that’s far higher.
Being bearish on the market now because of the current headlines is fading the 1st/2nd innings of the greatest technological revolution in history.
Short term, expect volatility and remain patient. Long term, keep your bias.
What’s Mispriced?
This is a section looking at the potential opportunities I’m seeing at the moment. I’ll split them by how I see the risk profile (high risk → low risk).
I’ll tend to aim for at least 3+ opportunities in every article I publish here…but that depends on what the market is offering.
You’ll also likely see overlap week to week. I am not a trader that changes his mind every few hours, days, or even weeks. If I see an opportunity, that opportunity sometimes stays around for weeks.
